The Science Of Making Better Decisions Under Uncertainty

Published 2/2023MP4 | Video: h264, 1280x720 | Audio: AAC, 44.1 KHzLanguage: English | Size: 541.33 MB | Duration: 0h 51m

How to sharpen your decision-making skills and get ahead of your competitors

What you'll learn

Identify the main pit-falls and biases when making decisions and learn to avoid them

Develop the mindset and tools to improve the quality of your decisions

Speak the language of uncertainty to make robust decisions

make faster decisions by being able to focus your attention on the minimum information needed to make a good decision

Requirements

You need to be open-minded and willing to revisit your mental models.

Basic notions in mathematics are required.

Description

A surveyed conducted on more than 700 hundreds companies worldwide prooved that there is a high correlation between organizaion's decision abilities and its financial results.Your decision-making skills can really make the difference between you and your competitors.This courses will teach you how to avoid the main pitfalls when making important decisions and present you the scientific approach to decision-making which is key to make rational and robust decisions in a complex and uncertain world.You will discover:- Why intelligence, experience and data are not enough to make good decisions. There is indeed an even more important skill which we will detail in this course.- How the way you think influence the quality of your decisions.- Why decisions based on average values are, on average, bad decisions.- An example of when you should NOT rely on Artificial Intelligence to make important decisions.- Why it is important to update your beliefs and how superforecasters do so.- How simple algorithms can help you improve the quality of your decisions and also learn when not to trust algorithms.Each section treats a different source of errors. You will have access to several short quizzes so you can test yourself.After each quizz, You will have access to a video presenting calibration techniques to help you improve the quality and speed of your decisions.

Overview

Section 1: Introduction

Lecture 1 Introduction

Lecture 2 Why decision-making is important

Lecture 3 Decision-making in the digital age

Lecture 4 The ingredients of a good decision

Lecture 5[Exercice] Thinking about thinking

Lecture 6 The most important decision for any organization

Lecture 7[Exercice] How to update your beliefs

Lecture 8 How to update your beliefs

Lecture 9[Exercice] Dealing with uncertainty

Lecture 10 Dealing with uncertainty